Ron,67,has just retired and is currently on a cruise up the East Coast of the UK to Scotland.
The boat he is sailing is a 42-year-old fin keel Albin Ballad,a 30ft cruiser racer which Ron has sailed single-handed for most of the trip so far,setting off from the South Coast.
He is currently in Lowestoft on a Friday in May.The next stage is to Grimsby,100英里以外。
During the passage there are several well-marked shoals and a windfarms.There is a traffic separation scheme,strong tides and a precautionary area off the Humber.
Ron doesn't fancy attempting this overnight trip alone so his nephew John has joined him for the weekend.John is keen to learn and has sailed a dinghy but has no yachting experience.He has arranged to return home on Monday.
The inshore forecast issued at 0100 on Friday is SW4 increasing and veering NW6 later.Sea state slight becoming moderate then rough.Rain later,然后能见度很好，一开始变得中等。For the following 24 hours the wind is forecast to be NW6.
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Current conditions at dawn on Friday seem ideal.
The skies are clear and there's a moderate southwesterly,which would give a fast beam reach.John only has the weekend free.Ron knows that if he delays he won't have a crew for the long passage.
If it was a short trip Ron would leave immediately while the weather is good,但是，在西北方向100英里处，逆风不断增强，看起来不那么吸引人。你会怎么做？
Unfortunately,the North Norfolk ports are tidal and the coast will turn into a lee shore during the passage.
The crew appears to be strong but with no experience there is a possibility he may be incapacitated by seasickness when the sea state gets rough.
Once the wind veers and the passage is to windward it's going to be hard work with complex navigation.
I would advise that it's better therefore to wait in Lowestoft for the wind direction to improve.
The crew will have to ring through his apologies and arrive home a day or two late.